Recurring Suboptimal Choices Result in Superior Decision Making
Recurring Suboptimal Choices Result in Superior Decision Making
StatusPost-Print
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Authors
Mondal, Supratik
Lenda, Dominik
Traczyk, Jakub
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Monograph (alternative title)
Date
2025-01
Publisher
Journal title
Decision
Issue
1
Volume
12
Pages
Pages
63-91
ISSN
2325-9965
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Access date
2024-06-14
Abstract PL
Abstract EN
A vast body of research has indicated that intensified deliberation on choice problems oftenimproves decision accuracy, as evidenced by choices that maximize expected value (EV).However, such extensive deliberation is not always feasible due to cognitive andenvironmental constraints. In one simulation study and three well-poweredfully-incentivized empirical studies, using the decision-from-experience task, we found thatindividuals who maximized EV without time constraints accumulated higher total gain.The trend reversed in the following two studies. Under time constraints, participants whomade more suboptimal (or random in terms of EV maximization) decisions earned moremoney than those who spent more time maximizing EV. By comparing sampling anddecision strategies among people with higher and lower statistical numeracy, we found thatmore numerate individuals made quicker suboptimal choices, resulting in better overallearnings than less numerate individuals. Detailed analysis indicated that skilled decisionmakers sampled information more rapidly and dynamically. They adaptively relied onvarying search strategies, initially focusing on reducing uncertainty and later discoveringunobserved outcomes. Finally, adaptive exploration was accompanied by the developmentof a metacognitive understanding of the task structure and choice environment.Participants who recognized the effectiveness of the random selection strategy earned morerewards. Taken together, these findings suggest that people (especially those with highernumeracy) in time-constrained environment adaptively changed their decision-makingstrategies and developed a metacognitive understanding of the task structure and decisionenvironment. This resulted in making recurring suboptimal choices that led to superiorlong-term performance in the decision task.
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Keywords PL
Keywords EN
Numeracy
Optimal decisions
Adaptive decision making
Expected value
Optimal decisions
Adaptive decision making
Expected value
Keywords other
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Czy powtarzalna irracjonalność jest adaptacyjnie racjonalna? Rola zdolności numerycznych i selekcji strategii decyzyjnych w wyborach w warunkach ryzyka i niepewności.
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