Recurring Suboptimal Choices Result in Superior Decision Making

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cris.lastimport.scopus2025-08-29T03:14:33Z
dc.abstract.enA vast body of research has indicated that intensified deliberation on choice problems oftenimproves decision accuracy, as evidenced by choices that maximize expected value (EV).However, such extensive deliberation is not always feasible due to cognitive andenvironmental constraints. In one simulation study and three well-poweredfully-incentivized empirical studies, using the decision-from-experience task, we found thatindividuals who maximized EV without time constraints accumulated higher total gain.The trend reversed in the following two studies. Under time constraints, participants whomade more suboptimal (or random in terms of EV maximization) decisions earned moremoney than those who spent more time maximizing EV. By comparing sampling anddecision strategies among people with higher and lower statistical numeracy, we found thatmore numerate individuals made quicker suboptimal choices, resulting in better overallearnings than less numerate individuals. Detailed analysis indicated that skilled decisionmakers sampled information more rapidly and dynamically. They adaptively relied onvarying search strategies, initially focusing on reducing uncertainty and later discoveringunobserved outcomes. Finally, adaptive exploration was accompanied by the developmentof a metacognitive understanding of the task structure and choice environment.Participants who recognized the effectiveness of the random selection strategy earned morerewards. Taken together, these findings suggest that people (especially those with highernumeracy) in time-constrained environment adaptively changed their decision-makingstrategies and developed a metacognitive understanding of the task structure and decisionenvironment. This resulted in making recurring suboptimal choices that led to superiorlong-term performance in the decision task.
dc.affiliationWydział Psychologii we Wrocławiu
dc.affiliationInstytut Psychologii
dc.contributor.authorMondal, Supratik
dc.contributor.authorLenda, Dominik
dc.contributor.authorTraczyk, Jakub
dc.date.access2024-06-14
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-06T09:47:54Z
dc.date.available2025-02-06T09:47:54Z
dc.date.created2024-04-20
dc.date.issued2025-01
dc.description.accesstimebefore_publication
dc.description.additionalvorwersja opublikowana
dc.description.grantnumber2019/35/O/HS6/04026
dc.description.grantnumberDI2017/0111/47
dc.description.granttitleCzy powtarzalna irracjonalność jest adaptacyjnie racjonalna? Rola zdolności numerycznych i selekcji strategii decyzyjnych w wyborach w warunkach ryzyka i niepewności.
dc.description.issue1
dc.description.physical63-91
dc.description.versionfinal_author
dc.description.volume12
dc.identifier.doi10.1037/dec0000240
dc.identifier.eissn2325-9973
dc.identifier.issn2325-9965
dc.identifier.urihttps://share.swps.edu.pl/handle/swps/719
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-04991-001
dc.languageen
dc.pbn.affiliationpsychologia
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.rights.questionYes_rights
dc.share.articleOPEN_REPOSITORY
dc.subject.enNumeracy
dc.subject.enOptimal decisions
dc.subject.enAdaptive decision making
dc.subject.enExpected value
dc.swps.sciencecloudsend
dc.titleRecurring Suboptimal Choices Result in Superior Decision Making
dc.title.journalDecision
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typeArticle

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