Should I Stay or Should I Go? Preference for Consistency Predicts Choice Perseveration in the Monty Hall Problem

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dc.abstract.enFive incentivized studies (N = 5,354) tested whether preference for consistency (PfC) predicts staying with one’s initial choice in the Monty Hall problem, despite the fact that switching maximizes the probability of winning. Studies 1 and 2 found that higher PfC predicts staying, even after controlling for need for closure, preference for structure, intolerance of uncertainty, conspiracy beliefs, and numerical competence. Studies 3 and 4 provided experimental evidence that incentives moderated the link between PfC and staying, but higher (vs. lower) PfC only attenuated rather than eliminated incentive sensitivity. Study 5 identified anticipated regret over switching and losing as a mechanism underlying the effect, showing that the link between PfC and staying held across cultural contexts, although its magnitude was culturally calibrated. Together, this research shows that consistency motivation governs choice perseverance in a task that is intentionally impersonal and assumed to be driven by probabilistic reasoning rather than motivational forces.
dc.affiliationInstytut Psychologii
dc.affiliationWydział Psychologii we Wrocławiu
dc.affiliationInstitute of Psychology
dc.contributor.authorGąsiorowska, Agata
dc.contributor.authorDoliński, Dariusz
dc.contributor.authorFolwarczny, Michal
dc.contributor.authorOtterbring, Tobias
dc.date.access2026-10-12
dc.date.accessioned2026-10-12T08:39:11Z
dc.date.available2026-10-12T08:39:11Z
dc.date.created2026-08-31
dc.description.abstract<jats:p> Five incentivized studies ( <jats:italic toggle="yes">N</jats:italic> = 5,354) tested whether preference for consistency (PfC) predicts staying with one’s initial choice in the Monty Hall problem, despite the fact that switching maximizes the probability of winning. Studies 1 and 2 found that higher PfC predicts staying, even after controlling for need for closure, preference for structure, intolerance of uncertainty, conspiracy beliefs, and numerical competence. Studies 3 and 4 provided experimental evidence that incentives moderated the link between PfC and staying, but higher (vs. lower) PfC only attenuated rather than eliminated incentive sensitivity. Study 5 identified anticipated regret over switching and losing as a mechanism underlying the effect, showing that the link between PfC and staying held across cultural contexts, although its magnitude was culturally calibrated. Together, this research shows that consistency motivation governs choice perseverance in a task that is intentionally impersonal and assumed to be driven by probabilistic reasoning rather than motivational forces. </jats:p>
dc.description.accesstimebefore_publication
dc.description.physical1-17
dc.description.sdgReducedInequalities
dc.description.sdgGoodHealthAndWellBeing
dc.description.versionfinal_author
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/01461672261488891
dc.identifier.eissn1552-7433
dc.identifier.issn0146-1672
dc.identifier.urihttps://share.swps.edu.pl/handle/swps/2600
dc.identifier.weblinkhttps://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01461672261488891
dc.languageen
dc.pbn.affiliationpsychologia
dc.rightsCC-BY
dc.rights.questionYes_rights
dc.share.articleOPEN_REPOSITORY
dc.subject.encommitment
dc.subject.enconsistency
dc.subject.enpreference for consistency
dc.subject.enmotivational coherence
dc.subject.enthe Monty Hall problem
dc.swps.sciencecloudnosend
dc.titleShould I Stay or Should I Go? Preference for Consistency Predicts Choice Perseveration in the Monty Hall Problem
dc.title.journalPersonality and Social Psychology Bulletin
dc.typeJournalArticle
dspace.entity.typeArticle